Tesla Battery/Drivetrain Efficiency Is Years Ahead of the Competition
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The Tesla Model 3 is one of the most efficient electric vehicles (EVs) on a range per kWh basis, slightly ahead of the Chevy Bolt, as shown below. Meanwhile, our research shows that the “Tesla Killers,” like the Jaguar I-Pace, Porsche Taycan, and others, are lagging behind significantly.
Because these cars come in different masses and shapes, ARK also put them through our physics-based model, allowing us to separate form factor from battery/drivetrain efficiency, and simulate EPA range. As shown in the chart below, after adjusting for the differences, the Jaguar I-Pace, one of Waymo’s primary go-to-market vehicles, is more than a third less efficient than the Model 3.
This efficiency difference suggests that Tesla should be able to produce a drivetrain/car capable of a given range for a much lower cost than its competitors, as shown below. This analysis is probably conservative because Tesla’s is producing the battery pack systems at a lower cost as well.
This chart also begs the question, “Why is the Chevy Bolt so efficient?” ARK’s take is that the Bolt is sacrificing performance to match Tesla’s efficiency and limit costs. Meanwhile, the “Tesla Killers” are sacrificing efficiency to try and match Tesla’s performance.
Tesla’s vertical integration, including power electronics, has enabled superior performance and efficiency. The efficiency difference, in particular, will be critical for EV success in the mass market, marking the difference between a healthy margin and potential failure.
Should China Ease Some of Its Restrictive Autonomous Data Laws?
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German automakers VW, Daimler, and BMW are attempting to capitalize on China’s autonomous driving opportunity, giving away their data and partnering with local firms to do so. Chinese regulations around mapping require that foreign firms partner with local players.[1]
China’s largest mapping firms include Baidu, Alibaba’s Autonavi, and Tencent-backed NavInfo. The government has deemed Baidu China’s autonomous driving platform, likely cementing its lead in the space. Now that Baidu has 100 partners on Apollo, its open source autonomous driving software platform, foreign players probably would be at a competitive disadvantage without access to mapping data.
Mapping restrictions seem likely to apply to US technology firms, such as Waymo and Tesla, looking to gain entry to China. While Tesla could partner with NavInfo, given Tencent’s 5% ownership position, sharing data would be a change of pace, given its history of verticalization. Data ownership disagreements, for example, probably was one of the reasons that Tesla ended its relationship with Mobileye. Google also owns its mapping system but will not progress in China without data and map sharing.
ARK estimates that China will be the world’s largest autonomous driving market. If so, foreign firms might find that ceding some data control likely will be worth the risk.
[1] Source: Financial Times article linked above