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Please enjoy ARK's weekly newsletter curated by our thematic analysts and designed to keep you engaged with disruptive innovation. Have a wonderful day!
 
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Tesla’s Model 3 Is Cheaper to Own Than the Lower Priced Toyota Camry

Follow Sam on Twitter @skorusARK

 

Last week, Kelley Blue Book (KBB) published its 2019 Best Resale Value Awards. According to KBB, over a three-year period the Tesla Model 3 is likely to retain 69.3% of its original sales price, more than 20 percentage points (or 37%) above the 48.6% of the Toyota Camry.  

 

Incorporating maintenance and fueling costs into the comparison, our model suggests that the total cost of ownership (TCO) will be higher for the Toyota Camry than the mid-range Model 3 over a three-year period. As shown below, while the sales price of the Camry today is more than 80% below that of the Model 3, its TCO will be more than 10% higher: $0.57 per mile for the Toyota Camry and $0.51 for the Model 3.

 

While consumers typically compare monthly payment plans when shopping for cars, recent evidence suggests that that TCOs are beginning to impact buying decisions. Recently, the CEO of Toyota North America noted that Tesla accounts for roughly half of Toyota’s 9% share loss to other brands in the US.

 

ARK believes in open source research, so here is the model of our total cost of ownership. Feel free to experiment with it and share any thoughts or questions with us: https://t.co/c3tjIf36kg.

 

ARK Disrupt 159 Graph 1

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What Happened to Nanotech?

Follow James on Twitter @jwangARK

 

Bill Joy’s famous 2000 essay, Why The Future Doesn’t Need Usnamed three technologies set to transform the 21st century: robotics, genomics, and nanotech. Almost two decades later, robotics and genomics have made great strides, but nanotech seems to have faded away. Google Trends offers some perspective—the number of searches for “nanotechnology” has fallen by more than 90% since 2004, as shown below.

 

ARK Disrupt 159 Graph 2

Source: Google Trends

 

Nanotech—specifically molecular nanotechnology--is seldom mentioned these days because researchers haven’t found a way to make it work. The original vision called for tiny nanoscale robots that could manipulate matter at the molecular level, enabling them to build anything imaginable. The challenge was building a robot small and dexterous enough to transport individual molecules. Joy expected a solution by 2020 but, thus far, no breakthrough has overcome the obstacles.

 

In the absence of a nanotech revolution, 3D printing is enjoying a revival. Like nanotech, 3D printing creates objects from the bottom up, but at a larger scale. Unlike nanotech, 3D printing works. Today it’s printing shoes, hearing aids, rocket engines, and even satellites.

 

ARK estimates that 3D printing revenues could scale more than 10-fold during the next five years, from less than $10 billion today to $94 billion in 2023.

 

 

Bitcoin’s Price Drawdowns in the Last Ten Years Hold Some Clues to Its Recovery

Follow Yassine on Twitter @yassineARK

 

Bitcoin's recent price drop from roughly $20,000 at its peak in 2017 to $3,200 is neither its longest nor its most severe drawdown. The charts below show bitcoin’s recent price drop in the context of historical drawdowns:

 

ARK Disrupt 159 Graph 3

Thus far the bitcoin price has suffered an 85% drawdown over 380 days, assuming that $3,200 was its trough. During 169 days in 2011, it dropped 93%, and over 407 days in 2013-15, 86%.

 

For the most part, bitcoin’s recovery from trough to previous peak has taken longer than the period from peak to trough, as shown below:

 

ARK Disrupt 159 Graph 4

The 93% drawdown in 2011 took approximately 1.5 years to recover, and the 86% drawdown from 2013-15, nearly 2 years. Today, if $3,200 was the trough in late 2018, then bitcoin has been in recovery for just 40 days. That said, even if the recovery in bitcoin back to $20,000 were to take 3-5 years this time around, the 6-7 fold increase probably would outstrip the returns from any other asset class.

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Spinal Fluid Biopsies Could Become Important in the Management of Brain Cancer

Follow Simon on Twitter @sbarnettARK

 

Gliomas are the most common form of malignant brain tumors, with unfortunately high rates of mortality and recurrence. Like other cancers, the molecular profile of a glioma responds to therapeutic intervention and can mutate over time. Unlike other cancers, however, brain tissue biopsies cannot be done frequently, if at all, making it difficult for clinicians to track the evolution of tumors and to guide therapy.

 

Liquid biopsies, minimally invasive tests of tumor DNA circulating in the blood (“ctDNA”), have not been relevant to gliomas because of the blood-brain barrier…until recently.  In a recent study published in Nature, researchers tracked the efficacy of cerebrospinal fluid (“CSF”) as the source for a liquid biopsy. Representing all grades of glioma (I—IV), 85 patients underwent MSK-IMPACT deep DNA sequencing, and half of them presented with CSF that included ctDNA. Of those patients, all presented specific mutations, such as 1p/19q and IDH1/2, that allowed clinicians to distinguish among gliomas and to predict emerging tumor sites. Finally, the data showed that glioma sites changed over time and in response to therapy, suggesting that repeat CSF biopsies could be effective in managing the ongoing treatment of gliomas.

 

That said, CSF biopsies do have to overcome some challenges. Spinal taps are significantly more invasive than blood draws. Additionally, the negative predictive values of such tests still need improvement. This would allow clinicians to distinguish actual healthy patients from patients for whom the test simply misdiagnosed. 


ARK's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. For a list of all purchases and sales made by ARK for client accounts during the past year that could be considered by the SEC as recommendations, click here. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. For full disclosures, click here.


 

 

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