By: Tasha Keeney, CFA, Sam Korus, Daniel Maguire, ACA
本レポートは、2023年4月20日にARK社のHPに公開された、英語による「ARK’s Expected Value For Tesla In 2027: $2,000 Per Share」の日本語訳です。内容については英語による原本が日本語版に優先します。また、情報提供のみを目的としたものです。
ARKが更新した最新のオープンソースのTesla（株価算出）モデル（以下、「モデル」）では、2027年の同社の1株あたりの期待値が2,000米ドルになりました。モンテカルロ法により75パーセンタイルと 25パーセンタイルの結果に調整された強気（ブル）と弱気（ベア）のケースは、以下に示すように、それぞれ1株あたり約 2,500米ドルと1,400米ドルとなっています。[1]。
Disclosure
The forecasted performance and price estimates herein are subject to revision by ARK and provided solely as a guide to current expectations. There can be no expectation that the specific security will achieve such performance or that there will be a return of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, AND PRESENT MANY RISKS AND LIMITATIONS. The recipient should not consider these estimated prices alone in making an investment decision. While ARK believes that there is a sound basis for the forecasts presented, no representations are made as to their accuracy, and there can be no assurance that such forecasts or returns will be achieved by the specific security.
The recipient is urged to use extreme caution when considering the forecasted performance, as it is inherently subjective and reflects ARK’s inherent bias toward higher expected returns. Any higher returns should be viewed as a measure of the relative risk of such investments, with higher forecasted performance generally reflecting greater risk. There is no guarantee that any results will align with the forecasted performance, and they might not be predictive. Some or all results may be substantially lower than projected results and, as with any investment, it is possible that you could lose money.
FORECASTED performance results (single security model simulation forecasts) have many inherent limitations. A recipient account might or might not hold this single security, and the account performance will be affected in proportion to its holding size and the amount of price fluctuation over time. No representation is being made that any client account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses tied to a security in the security model
forecasts. In fact, there could be significant differences between these forecasted performance results and the actual results realized.
Forecasted performance has not been achieved by the security, and like all modeled, projected, or hypothetical performance, it is important to note that there are multiple versions of a model, and ARK has a conflict of interest in that we have an incentive to show you the best performing results. These forecasts rely on models, which calculate hypothetical performance. Several of the limitations of hypothetical performance models include: 1) reliance on a variety of data obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable, but might be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete and ARK does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from any third party, 2) potential inclusion of inherent model creation biases, data discrepancies and/or calculation errors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, 3) NO reflection of the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on investment decisions that would have been in actual portfolios being managed at the time and do not involve market risk, and 4) NO guarantee of future investment results. The forecasted results rely on assumptions, forecasts, estimates, modeling, algorithms and other data input by ARK, some of which relies on third-parties, that could be or prove over time to be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete.
The forecasted returns are based on a variety of criteria and assumptions, which might vary substantially, and involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis that reflect our own expectations and biases, which might prove invalid or change without notice. It is possible that other foreseeable events that were not taken into account could occur. The forecasted performance results contained herein represent the application of the simulation models as currently in effect on the date first written above, and there can be no assurance that the models will remain the same in the future or that an application of the current models in the future will produce similar results because the relevant market and economic conditions that prevailed during the performance period will not necessarily occur. The results will not be updated as the models change, or any information upon which they rely changes. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the public equity security specifically that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of forecasted performance results, all of which can adversely affect actual results. For these reasons, forecasted performance results will differ, and could differ significantly from actual results. FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION AND PRESENTED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY.
While ARK’s current assessment of the subject company may be positive, please note that it might be necessary for ARK to liquidate or reduce position sizes prior to the company attaining any forecasted valuation pricing due to a variety of conditions including, but not limited to, client specific guidelines, changing market conditions, investor activity, fundamental changes in the company’s business model and competitive landscape, headline risk, and government/regulatory activity. Additionally, ARK does not have investment banking, consulting, or any type of fee-paying relationship with the subject company.
- 注：本レポートにおける予想は、検証されていないデータに依存しており、本質的に不確実な多くの基準、想定、リスクおよび限界が存在するため、実際の結果が予想と大幅に異なる可能性があります。予想は、粗利益率と資本効率、および、生産拡大、配車サービスの開始、完全自動運転車の生産に関するTeslaの能力、並びにその他の指標に関する想定を含んでおり、これらの想定は長期的に変化または修正される可能性があり、ARKの予想を意思決定の根拠として使用することのリスクと限界を高めることになる、ARKの主観的な判断とバイアスの影響を受けます。市場およびその他の将来の事象が予想不可能であることを考慮すると、予想に依存することは本質的にリスクがあります。本レポートに示された予想は、理にかなった根拠があるとARKは考えていますが、予想の正確さを表明するものではなく、予想またはリターンが達成されること、実際の結果と整合性があることを保証するものでもありません。本レポートの読者は、投資の意思決定において、本レポートにおける予想のみを考慮の対象としてはなりません。予想は、Teslaの株式の保有にかかわる手数料や費用を考慮していません。ARKの関連当事者およびARKの顧客がTesla株を保有することがあるため、ARKには、Teslaの株価上昇に対するインセンティブや利害があり、また、ARKおよびその関連当事者は、ARKの顧客のポートフォリオにあるTeslaの株価に基づいた成功報酬を受け取る可能性があるため、株価が上昇すれば、ARKが追加的報酬を獲得する可能性があることを意味しています。ARKの関連当事者は、ARKの顧客のために行なった投資決定と相反する投資決定を自ら行なうことがあります。その決定は、本資料に含まれている情報と整合性がある場合と相反する場合があります。ARKの利益相反に関するさらなる情報については、ARKのForm ADV Part 2Aをご覧ください。